I'm guessing you don't work in marketing. I'm no marketing expert, but I have done a lot of marketing and some development. Depending on the marketing and product, you can expect at least a 3:1 return on investment for every marketing dollar spent. Considering they marketed toward a niche community using influencers who are generally trusted, I would say a 3:1 ROI would be the minimum expected. On the note of influencers, I will likely be dubious of anything Rhykker endorses going forward. It probably wasn't his fault the launch of Wolcen was so bad, but it is his reputation that was affected. I really hope he addresses the controversy in his normal positive but frank manner soon.
I don't know what their marketing budget was, but I'll assume it was at least $10k, probably more like $50k based on how many reputable streamers I saw endorsing the game. With a marketing buy-in of $50k, you would expect at least 150k in sales, with nearly 100% of those sales logging in at or near launch weekend. Even at $10k spent on marketing, you would expect at least 30k people to log in on launch weekend. Add in the 11k+ backers, and you have about 41k people expected. Now double capacity, and that's what the servers should have been built for (which is right around what was concurrently logged in based on Steam analytics). A queue system would have been a tried and tested method to handle larger than expected load, that way people could still play the game but not overload the system. Then spin up more server nodes as needed.
The marketing team for this game did a bang up job and deserves a bonus. Unfortunately, the rest of the staff weren't up to the task.
Keep in mind player base will drop off precipitously if the game continues to be unplayable. They have about a 2-3 week window before this game dies. I hope the CEO or whoever is in charge is both knowledgeable (which I doubt based on performance thus far) and has passion for the project. Otherwise this game will drop from 100k+ concurrent players to almost nothing really fast. For a recent real world market example, look at Anthem.
The first 2 weeks of a launch are the make or break period of a game; a good chunk of earnings happen in the first few weeks of a game's launch. It's important to have a working product and good marketing to get as many copies as possible in the hands of players during this window.
I fully fit into that demographic. I was mildly interested in the game as a '
throw it on my Steam wishlist and wait for a sale' person, then I watched Rhykker's first video and immediately bought 2 copies of the game (one for myself and one for a friend). We played for 2 hours, then the game was unplayable in co-op for more than 2 full days, both of which were on the weekend. Then we got to play together again, beat the game, started end game, and now can't play again due to the authentication bug.
ARPGs are a niche community, so the game may survive this. However, with D3 and PoE seasons ending and new ones beginning soon, Wolcen has about a month to get sorted out before I think they'll lose a lot of players.
I enjoyed what I did play, but the game didn't launch in a vacuum. It has some stiff, established competition that mostly knows what they're doing (PoE, not D3). Instead of being remembered for being a great game, every day that passes with game breaking bugs the likelihood of Wolcen slipping into obscurity increases. Remember how awful the new Cats theatrical release was? Wolcen just managed an even worse launch than that dumpster fire of a movie. You only get one chance to make a good first impression, and Wolcen made a BAD first impression for over 100k people. I hope they get it sorted out fast, because I think the game has genuine potential. However, they have an uphill battle to fix all the game breaking bugs over the next few weeks. I'm not talking about the annoying bugs, I mean the bugs that make people rage quit and uninstall the game. Bugs like online servers not working (since for some reason there isn't an option to invite friends to offline co-op), authentication errors preventing players from getting into the game (online or offline), inventories disappearing (I would rage quit right now after grinding out endgame gear already), and the various exploits that have existed since the beta. Add in the horrific balancing of the game, and my optimism for the future dims.
Good luck team Wolcen, you're going to need it. I'll be rooting for you, from the side of realism, big data, and historical norms.